Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cole Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1359

Elo1352

Cole MillervsBart PalaszewskiUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · Saturday, April 13, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cole Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:23

Model Prediction: Cole Miller wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Cole Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Miller at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cole Miller threatens submissions; Bart Palaszewski has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Bart Palaszewski has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

Bart Palaszewski

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1359

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Bart PalaszewskiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Griffin · Oct 11

vs Hatsu Hioki · Feb 12

vs Diego Nunes · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricBart Palaszewski

3.00

Strikes / min

2.67

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.65

38%

Takedown defense

53%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerBart Palaszewski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)Bart Palaszewski(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.7|Blue -6.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +62.0|Blue -62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetBart Palaszewski

By target zone

3% acc · 20%

Head

15% acc · 39%

25% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 11%

100% acc · 60%

Leg

90% acc · 50%

By position

12% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 94%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

Bart Palaszewski rounds

Round 1Bart Palaszewski edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:45

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 43

Sig Strikes

18 / 62

11%

Sig Str %

29%

6 / 44

Total Strikes

18 / 62

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bart Palaszewski	18 / 62	18 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	Cole Miller	5 / 43	6 / 44	1 / 1	1

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Bart Palaszewski

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4