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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1500

Cole MillervsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cole Miller threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1359

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 13

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricAlex Caceres

3.00

Strikes / min

4.21

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

59%

Strike defense

62%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.54

38%

Takedown defense

64%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.0|Blue +141.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +350.0|Blue -350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

22% acc · 73%

Head

54% acc · 67%

45% acc · 15%

Body

85% acc · 23%

80% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

25% acc · 91%

Distance

59% acc · 79%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

71% acc · 10%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

83% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control0:52

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:13Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:41

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 127

Sig Strikes

97 / 156

26.3%

Sig Str %

63.7%

39 / 134

Total Strikes

108 / 167

3 / 3

TDs

5 / 5

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Caceres	27 / 38	33 / 44	2 / 2	0
1	Cole Miller	8 / 42	8 / 42	2 / 2	0
2	Alex Caceres	46 / 81	47 / 82	2 / 2	0
2	Cole Miller	13 / 50	13 / 50	0 / 0	0
3	Alex Caceres	24 / 37	28 / 41	1 / 1	0
3	Cole Miller	12 / 35	18 / 42	1 / 1	1

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29