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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Renan Barao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1378

Cole EscovedovsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cole Escovedo wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Escovedo at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Escovedo

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1351

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole EscovedoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takeya Mizugaki · Sep 11

vs Alex Caceres · Nov 11

latest

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole EscovedoMetricRenan Barao

1.77

Strikes / min

3.78

4.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

49%

Strike defense

57%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.49

13%

Takedown defense

91%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 2.43 — meaningful gap-0.12

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Escovedo(3 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.7|Blue +26.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole EscovedoTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

24% acc · 34%

Head

36% acc · 43%

93% acc · 48%

Body

89% acc · 37%

63% acc · 17%

Leg

64% acc · 20%

By position

45% acc · 93%

Distance

51% acc · 91%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

75% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Escovedo rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 3Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 65

Sig Strikes

46 / 88

44.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

48 / 84

Total Strikes

96 / 139

0 / 1

TDs

6 / 7

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

8:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renan Barao	7 / 15	41 / 50	2 / 2
1	Cole Escovedo	4 / 10	18 / 24	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	11 / 25	22 / 36	2 / 3
2	Cole Escovedo	8 / 16	12 / 20	0 / 0
3	Renan Barao	28 / 48	33 / 53	2 / 2
3	Cole Escovedo	17 / 39	18 / 40	0 / 1

Cole Escovedo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17