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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Colby Thicknesse won · Decision R3

Elo1526

Elo1454

Colby ThicknessevsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia

Official fight result

Colby Thicknesse won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colby Thicknesse wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Colby Thicknesse wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Vince Morales has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Thicknesse

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1526

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby Thicknesse

oldest →

vs Aleksandre Topuria · Feb 25

vs Josias Musasa · Sep 25

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby ThicknesseMetricVince Morales

3.24

Strikes / min

3.54

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.71

33%

Takedown defense

63%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Thicknesse(3 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.6|Blue -71.6

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Colby Thicknesse

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11