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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Colby Thicknesse won · U-DEC R3

Elo1526

Elo1475

Colby ThicknessevsJosias MusasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Colby Thicknesse won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colby Thicknesse wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Colby Thicknesse wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Thicknesse at +134 American odds

+$134 profit

$234 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Colby Thicknesse has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Josias Musasa has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Thicknesse

Red Corner

Josias Musasa

Blue Corner

+134

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-158

(61%)

1526

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby Thicknesse

oldest →

vs Aleksandre Topuria · Feb 25

DECvs Vince Morales · May 26

latest

Josias Musasa

oldest →

SUBvs Carlos Vera · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby ThicknesseMetricJosias Musasa

3.24

Strikes / min

3.19

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

54%

Strike defense

36%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.90

33%

Takedown defense

81%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Thicknesse(3 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.5|Blue -50.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby ThicknesseTargetJosias Musasa

By target zone

51% acc · 77%

Head

43% acc · 60%

80% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 16%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

56% acc · 23%

By position

48% acc · 24%

Distance

44% acc · 63%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

64% acc · 37%

58% acc · 69%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Thicknesse rounds

even

Josias Musasa rounds

Round 1Colby Thicknesse edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control2:43

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Josias Musasa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:56

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Colby Thicknesse edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:06

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 111

Sig Strikes

43 / 89

54.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

126 / 199

Total Strikes

62 / 118

2 / 14

TDs

1 / 2

12%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:45

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josias Musasa	12 / 27	18 / 36	1 / 2	0
1	Colby Thicknesse	43 / 75	72 / 111	1 / 6	1
2	Josias Musasa	18 / 35	26 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Thicknesse	8 / 14	16 / 27	0 / 3	0
3	Josias Musasa	13 / 27	18 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Thicknesse	11 / 22	38 / 61	1 / 5	0

Colby Thicknesse

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2

Josias Musasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2