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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandre Topuria won · U-DEC R3

Elo1526

Elo1525

Colby ThicknessevsAleksandre TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Aleksandre Topuria won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colby Thicknesse wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Aleksandre Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Thicknesse at +265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandre Topuria has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aleksandre Topuria has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Thicknesse

Red Corner

Aleksandre Topuria

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1526

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby ThicknesseW2 streak

oldest →

vs Josias Musasa · Sep 25

DECvs Vince Morales · May 26

latest

Aleksandre Topuria

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby ThicknesseMetricAleksandre Topuria

3.24

Strikes / min

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

54%

Strike defense

68%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

1.50

33%

Takedown defense

100%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby ThicknesseAleksandre Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Thicknesse(3 fights)Aleksandre Topuria(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby ThicknesseTargetAleksandre Topuria

By target zone

20% acc · 47%

Head

34% acc · 44%

44% acc · 32%

Body

86% acc · 46%

89% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

29% acc · 92%

Distance

50% acc · 85%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

71% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Thicknesse rounds

even

Aleksandre Topuria rounds

Round 1Aleksandre Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Aleksandre Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 127

Sig Strikes

41 / 79

31.3%

Sig Str %

44%

40 / 131

Total Strikes

65 / 110

0 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandre Topuria	18 / 32	20 / 34	1 / 1
1	Colby Thicknesse	13 / 46	13 / 47	0 / 3
2	Aleksandre Topuria	22 / 43	22 / 43	0 / 0
2	Colby Thicknesse	21 / 70	21 / 71	0 / 3
3	Aleksandre Topuria	1 / 4	23 / 33	0 / 1
3	Colby Thicknesse	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 2

Colby Thicknesse

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2

Aleksandre Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2