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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Colby Covington won · KO/TKO

Elo1491

Elo1398

Colby CovingtonvsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington

Red Corner

Tyron Woodley

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1491

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Tyron WoodleyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Jul 17

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricTyron Woodley

3.81

Strikes / min

2.36

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

54%

Strike defense

54%

3.64

TDs / 15 min

1.06

68%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby CovingtonTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Covington(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.4|Blue -93.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

44% acc · 60%

Head

24% acc · 41%

79% acc · 28%

Body

75% acc · 44%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 55%

Distance

35% acc · 76%

95% acc · 24%

Clinch

89% acc · 24%

73% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Covington rounds

even

Tyron Woodley rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:18

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:19

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control3:23

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 4Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control4:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:36

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 143

Sig Strikes

34 / 83

53.6%

Sig Str %

42.6%

232 / 311

Total Strikes

67 / 116

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

40%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

12:01

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyron Woodley	5 / 22	14 / 31	0 / 0
1	Colby Covington	13 / 32	36 / 59	1 / 1
2	Tyron Woodley	13 / 26	24 / 37	1 / 1
2	Colby Covington	20 / 43	32 / 55	0 / 2
3	Tyron Woodley	12 / 26	23 / 37	0 / 0
3	Colby Covington	23 / 31	51 / 60	0 / 1
4	Colby Covington	18 / 28	104 / 123	1 / 2
4	Tyron Woodley	3 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 0
5	Tyron Woodley	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0
5	Colby Covington	4 / 9	9 / 14	1 / 2

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15