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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Colby Covington
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler

Colby CovingtonvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(82.9%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington
Red Corner
VS
Robbie Lawler
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1491
Elo
1499
38
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24
latest
Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
W
KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricRobbie Lawler
3.81
Strikes / min
3.85
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
54%
Strike defense
59%
3.64
TDs / 15 min
0.65
68%
Takedown defense
65%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1647 vs 1593Strikes4.2 vs 3.6Takedowns4.9 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs -0.6
Colby CovingtonRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Colby Covington(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.9|Blue +7.9
Recent Form
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +266.0|Blue -266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

128
28% acc · 72%
Head
61
42% acc · 78%
20
71% acc · 11%
Body
10
63% acc · 13%
31
94% acc · 17%
Leg
7
100% acc · 9%

By position

154
32% acc · 86%
Distance
66
43% acc · 85%
25
66% acc · 14%
Clinch
12
80% acc · 15%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Colby Covington rounds
0
even
0
Robbie Lawler rounds
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns4
Control3:57
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns3
Control2:18
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns2
Control0:51
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes51
Takedowns1
Control1:27
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:09
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
179 / 515
Sig Strikes
78 / 167
35.8%
Sig Str %
50%
201 / 541
Total Strikes
82 / 171
10 / 18
TDs
0 / 0
49.4%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:42
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robbie Lawler4 / 185 / 190 / 00
1Colby Covington13 / 2924 / 414 / 70
2Robbie Lawler6 / 76 / 70 / 00
2Colby Covington33 / 10536 / 1083 / 30
3Robbie Lawler23 / 4825 / 500 / 00
3Colby Covington41 / 11743 / 1222 / 50
4Colby Covington51 / 13056 / 1351 / 20
4Robbie Lawler22 / 4223 / 430 / 00
5Robbie Lawler23 / 5223 / 520 / 00
5Colby Covington41 / 13442 / 1350 / 10

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18