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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Colby Covington won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1456

Colby CovingtonvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Colby Covington enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1491

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby CovingtonL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Jorge MasvidalL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricJorge Masvidal

3.81

Strikes / min

4.05

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

54%

Strike defense

64%

3.64

TDs / 15 min

1.38

68%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby CovingtonJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Covington(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.9|Blue -34.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

44% acc · 89%

Head

40% acc · 57%

90% acc · 10%

Body

53% acc · 15%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

70% acc · 28%

By position

39% acc · 67%

Distance

44% acc · 82%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 18%

76% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Covington rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control3:32

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:21

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:34

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:13

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control4:34

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 201

Sig Strikes

67 / 140

48.4%

Sig Str %

49%

218 / 338

Total Strikes

90 / 166

6 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

42%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

16:14

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Masvidal	6 / 17	12 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Colby Covington	7 / 18	29 / 45	3 / 5	0
2	Jorge Masvidal	31 / 63	36 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Covington	20 / 58	25 / 63	0 / 2	0
3	Jorge Masvidal	8 / 12	19 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Covington	21 / 40	62 / 86	1 / 2	1
4	Colby Covington	33 / 66	37 / 70	0 / 4	0
4	Jorge Masvidal	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0	0
5	Jorge Masvidal	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
5	Colby Covington	13 / 19	65 / 74	2 / 2	0

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22