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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Colby CovingtonvsJonathan MeunierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:54

Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsJonathan Meunier: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Meunier has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Meunier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington

Red Corner

Jonathan Meunier

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Jonathan Meunier

oldest →

vs Richard Walsh · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricJonathan Meunier

3.81

Strikes / min

3.47

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

1.43

54%

Strike defense

69%

3.64

TDs / 15 min

0.58

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby CovingtonJonathan Meunier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Covington(10 fights)Jonathan Meunier(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetJonathan Meunier

By target zone

55% acc · 89%

Head

63% acc · 63%

67% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

43% acc · 16%

Distance

60% acc · 38%

Clinch

59% acc · 84%

Ground

77% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Covington rounds

even

Jonathan Meunier rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control4:11

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:33

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 34

Sig Strikes

16 / 23

58%

Sig Str %

61.3%

78 / 107

Total Strikes

40 / 52

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

80.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jonathan Meunier	3 / 6	19 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Colby Covington	7 / 13	36 / 49	3 / 7	0
2	Jonathan Meunier	11 / 13	18 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Covington	7 / 14	37 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Jonathan Meunier	2 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Covington	5 / 7	5 / 7	1 / 1	1

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Jonathan Meunier

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach—

Fights2