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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1516

Colby CovingtonvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:42

Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Joaquin Buckley has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Colby Covington

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1491

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colby Covington

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colby CovingtonMetricJoaquin Buckley

3.81

Strikes / min

3.62

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

58%

3.64

TDs / 15 min

1.43

68%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colby CovingtonJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colby Covington(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.8|Blue +24.8

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colby CovingtonTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

24% acc · 70%

Head

45% acc · 79%

73% acc · 22%

Body

76% acc · 17%

60% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

28% acc · 89%

Distance

48% acc · 87%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colby Covington rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:22

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:28

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:50

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 124

Sig Strikes

75 / 151

30.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

71 / 161

Total Strikes

81 / 160

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joaquin Buckley	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Colby Covington	10 / 51	10 / 51	0 / 2	0
2	Joaquin Buckley	28 / 55	29 / 56	0 / 1	0
2	Colby Covington	19 / 50	25 / 56	1 / 3	0
3	Joaquin Buckley	24 / 41	29 / 49	0 / 0	1
3	Colby Covington	8 / 23	36 / 54	0 / 3	0

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17