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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · SUB R1

Elo1488

Elo1493

Cody StamannvsSaid NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:47

Style matchupCody Stamann: WrestlervsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Said Nurmagomedov at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Stamann enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Cody Stamann has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Said Nurmagomedov has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Stamann

Red Corner

Said Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1488

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody StamannL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jun 22

vs Luan Lacerda · Jan 23

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · May 23

vs Taylor Lapilus · Jun 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Nov 24

latest

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody StamannMetricSaid Nurmagomedov

4.32

Strikes / min

3.08

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

60%

Strike defense

55%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.86

76%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody StamannSaid Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Stamann(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody StamannTargetSaid Nurmagomedov

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

44% acc · 57%

Body

50% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

54% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Stamann rounds

even

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 4

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

25%

Sig Str %

53%

1 / 4

Total Strikes

7 / 13

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Said Nurmagomedov	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 1	1
1	Cody Stamann	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 2	0

Cody Stamann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights14

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11