Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yves Edwards won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1354

Cody McKenzievsYves EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Yves Edwards won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:33

Style matchupCody McKenzie: WrestlervsYves Edwards: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yves Edwards wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Yves Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Edwards at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cody McKenzie threatens submissions; Yves Edwards has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Yves Edwards has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody McKenzie

Red Corner

Yves Edwards

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody McKenzie

oldest →

SUBvs Vagner Rocha · Sep 11

SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12

KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12

vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13

vs Sam Stout · Dec 13

latest

Yves EdwardsL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody McKenzieMetricYves Edwards

1.74

Strikes / min

2.91

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

67%

Strike defense

66%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

0.76

14%

Takedown defense

69%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.76Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody McKenzieYves Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody McKenzie(7 fights)Yves Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.4|Blue -136.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -80.0|Blue +80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody McKenzieTargetYves Edwards

By target zone

18% acc · 75%

Head

27% acc · 45%

50% acc · 13%

Body

92% acc · 33%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

88% acc · 21%

By position

18% acc · 69%

Distance

42% acc · 82%

20% acc · 6%

Clinch

43% acc · 9%

57% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody McKenzie rounds

even

Yves Edwards rounds

Round 1Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:45

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 2Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:09

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 72

Sig Strikes

33 / 75

24.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

55 / 112

Total Strikes

41 / 84

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

32%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yves Edwards	18 / 42	22 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Cody McKenzie	9 / 50	9 / 50	1 / 7	0
2	Yves Edwards	15 / 33	19 / 38	0 / 0	1
2	Cody McKenzie	7 / 22	46 / 62	1 / 2	0

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10