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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Vagner Rocha won · SUB R2
Elo1490
Elo1354

Cody McKenzievsVagner RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Vagner Rocha won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:49

Style matchupCody McKenzie: WrestlervsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Vagner Rocha wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Vagner Rocha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vagner Rocha at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Cody McKenzie threatens submissions; Vagner Rocha has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Cody McKenzie has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Cody McKenzie has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Vagner Rocha has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody McKenzie
Red Corner
VS
Vagner Rocha
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1490
Elo
1354
38
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody McKenzie
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11
W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12
L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13
L
vs Sam Stout · Dec 13
latest
Vagner RochaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11
L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12
L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody McKenzieMetricVagner Rocha
1.74
Strikes / min
2.64
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
67%
Strike defense
48%
2.50
TDs / 15 min
1.40
14%
Takedown defense
50%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1483Strikes8.0 vs 46.0Takedowns1.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -1.0
Cody McKenzieVagner Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Cody McKenzie(7 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.5|Blue -136.5
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody McKenzieTargetVagner Rocha

By target zone

10
29% acc · 67%
Head
14
36% acc · 78%
2
67% acc · 13%
Body
1
25% acc · 6%
3
60% acc · 20%
Leg
3
60% acc · 17%

By position

12
30% acc · 80%
Distance
9
26% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
9
69% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cody McKenzie rounds
1
even
1
Vagner Rocha rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:31
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:21Control
Round 2Vagner Rocha edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 43
Sig Strikes
18 / 48
37.5%
Sig Str %
42%
31 / 59
Total Strikes
53 / 84
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
4
0
Rev
0
0:32
Ctrl Time
5:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vagner Rocha7 / 3029 / 521 / 12
1Cody McKenzie12 / 3616 / 400 / 01
2Vagner Rocha11 / 1824 / 321 / 12
2Cody McKenzie3 / 715 / 190 / 00

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Vagner Rocha

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4