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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Cody McKenzie won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1490

Cody McKenzievsAaron WilkinsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody McKenzie won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:03

Style matchupCody McKenzie: WrestlervsAaron Wilkinson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Cody McKenzie wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Cody McKenzie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody McKenzie at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aaron Wilkinson has 33pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody McKenzie
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Wilkinson
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1490
Elo
1490
38
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody McKenzie
oldest →
L
SUBvs Vagner Rocha · Sep 11
W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12
L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13
L
vs Sam Stout · Dec 13
latest
Aaron WilkinsonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody McKenzieMetricAaron Wilkinson
1.74
Strikes / min
0.00
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
0.00
67%
Strike defense
100%
2.50
TDs / 15 min
7.32
14%
Takedown defense
0%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76evenly matched on net striking0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Cody McKenzie(7 fights)Aaron Wilkinson(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody McKenzieTargetAaron Wilkinson

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cody McKenzie rounds
1
even
0
Aaron Wilkinson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:54
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 2
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
0%
Sig Str %
0%
8 / 10
Total Strikes
0 / 1
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
2
Rev
1
0:54
Ctrl Time
1:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aaron Wilkinson0 / 10 / 11 / 10
1Cody McKenzie0 / 28 / 101 / 12

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Aaron Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights1