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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1472

Cody GarbrandtvsXiao LongUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCody Garbrandt: Well-roundedvsXiao Long: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cody Garbrandt wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Garbrandt at +138 American odds

+$138 profit

$238 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Garbrandt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Xiao Long is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Cody Garbrandt has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Xiao Long has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Xiao Long

Blue Corner

+138

(42%)

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody GarbrandtL3 streak

oldest →

vs Trevin Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Xiao Long

oldest →

vs ChangHo Lee · Jun 24

KOvs Quang Le · Nov 24

vs SuYoung You · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricXiao Long

2.79

Strikes / min

5.06

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.85

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.74

81%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody GarbrandtXiao Long

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Xiao Long(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.9|Blue -14.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetXiao Long

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

27% acc · 19%

100% acc · 39%

Body

68% acc · 32%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

74% acc · 49%

By position

40% acc · 61%

Distance

52% acc · 86%

92% acc · 39%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Xiao Long rounds

Round 1Xiao Long edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:27

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Xiao Long edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:11

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Xiao Long edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:15

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 54

Sig Strikes

59 / 108

51%

Sig Str %

55%

28 / 54

Total Strikes

70 / 119

0 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Xiao Long	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 2
2	Xiao Long	21 / 41	22 / 42	0 / 1
2	Cody Garbrandt	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 1
3	Xiao Long	18 / 36	28 / 46	1 / 1
3	Cody Garbrandt	11 / 19	11 / 19	0 / 5

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Xiao Long

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4