Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1450

Cody GarbrandtvsTrevin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cody Garbrandt wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Garbrandt at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevin Jones enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Trevin Jones is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Cody Garbrandt has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Cody Garbrandt has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cody Garbrandt has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Trevin Jones (53.5%).
Trevin Jones has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Trevin Jones

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1487

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Trevin JonesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Timur Valiev · Aug 20

KOvs Mario Bautista · Mar 21

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Aug 21

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 22

vs Raoni Barcelos · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricTrevin Jones

2.79

Strikes / min

2.13

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

58%

Strike defense

39%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.62

81%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody GarbrandtTrevin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Trevin Jones(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.8|Blue -36.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetTrevin Jones

By target zone

57% acc · 31%

Head

18% acc · 45%

93% acc · 54%

Body

57% acc · 40%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

60% acc · 15%

By position

75% acc · 81%

Distance

23% acc · 75%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Trevin Jones rounds

Round 1Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control2:20

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Trevin Jones edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 33

Sig Strikes

20 / 69

74%

Sig Str %

27%

33 / 40

Total Strikes

30 / 79

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:32

Ctrl Time

1:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevin Jones	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Cody Garbrandt	17 / 19	17 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Trevin Jones	2 / 9	6 / 13	0 / 1	1
2	Cody Garbrandt	5 / 6	11 / 12	2 / 2	0
3	Trevin Jones	11 / 36	17 / 42	1 / 1	0
3	Cody Garbrandt	4 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 1	0

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Trevin Jones

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6