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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1359

Cody GarbrandtvsTakeya MizugakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:48

Style matchupCody Garbrandt: Well-roundedvsTakeya Mizugaki: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at +415 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Takeya Mizugaki has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Takeya Mizugaki has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Takeya Mizugaki

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+415

(19%)

1487

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Takeya Mizugaki

oldest →

vs Francisco Rivera · May 14

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricTakeya Mizugaki

2.79

Strikes / min

3.37

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

58%

Strike defense

57%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

1.46

81%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody GarbrandtTakeya Mizugaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.5|Blue -128.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -246.0|Blue +246.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetTakeya Mizugaki

By target zone

40% acc · 83%

Head

43% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 25%

By position

40% acc · 50%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

45% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

Round 1Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 27

Sig Strikes

4 / 9

44%

Sig Str %

44%

13 / 28

Total Strikes

6 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takeya Mizugaki	4 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Cody Garbrandt	12 / 27	13 / 28	0 / 0	0

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14