Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Garbrandt won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1489

Cody GarbrandtvsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:42

Style matchupCody Garbrandt: Well-roundedvsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Cody Garbrandt wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Garbrandt has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

vs Trevin Jones · Mar 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Brian KelleherL3 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Aug 21

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricBrian Kelleher

2.79

Strikes / min

3.31

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

1.68

81%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody GarbrandtBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

43% acc · 80%

Head

69% acc · 53%

100% acc · 10%

Body

33% acc · 6%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

78% acc · 41%

By position

46% acc · 80%

Distance

71% acc · 100%

67% acc · 20%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 41

Sig Strikes

17 / 25

48%

Sig Str %

68%

21 / 42

Total Strikes

21 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Kelleher	17 / 25	21 / 29	0 / 1	0
1	Cody Garbrandt	20 / 41	21 / 42	0 / 0	0

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17