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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Cody Garbrandt won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1487
Elo1491

Cody GarbrandtvsAugusto MendesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:18

Model Prediction: Cody Garbrandt wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Garbrandt at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Augusto Mendes has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt
Red Corner
VS
Augusto Mendes
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1487
Elo
1491
35
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt
oldest →
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25
W
vs Xiao Long · Mar 26
L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26
latest
Augusto Mendes
oldest →
W
vs Frankie Saenz · Jan 17
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricAugusto Mendes
2.79
Strikes / min
2.42
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
58%
Strike defense
56%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
1.75
81%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1500Strikes56.5 vs —Takedowns2.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Cody GarbrandtAugusto Mendes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Augusto Mendes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.5|Blue +3.5
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.4|Blue +48.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetAugusto Mendes

By target zone

8
22% acc · 73%
Head
5
19% acc · 45%
1
50% acc · 9%
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 18%
Leg
6
55% acc · 55%

By position

10
26% acc · 91%
Distance
10
28% acc · 91%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 9%
1
50% acc · 9%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cody Garbrandt rounds
0
even
0
Augusto Mendes rounds
Round 1Cody Garbrandt edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
11 / 41
Sig Strikes
11 / 38
26%
Sig Str %
28%
11 / 41
Total Strikes
11 / 38
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Augusto Mendes11 / 3811 / 380 / 00
1Cody Garbrandt11 / 4111 / 410 / 00

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights18

Augusto Mendes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights3