Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Adrian Yanez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1521

Cody GarbrandtvsAdrian YanezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Adrian Yanez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Cody Garbrandt

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Cody Garbrandt at +334 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupCody Garbrandt: Well-roundedvsAdrian Yanez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Adrian Yanez wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Adrian Yanez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Adrian Yanez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Adrian Yanez is a KO finisher (86% of wins). Cody Garbrandt has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Adrian Yanez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Adrian Yanez

Blue Corner

+334

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-434

(81%)

1487

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

vs Trevin Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

latest

Adrian Yanez

oldest →

KOvs Rob Font · Apr 23

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 23

KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24

vs Daniel Marcos · Dec 24

vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricAdrian Yanez

2.79

Strikes / min

5.96

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

58%

Strike defense

56%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap+0.72

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Adrian Yanez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.2|Blue +34.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetAdrian Yanez

By target zone

34% acc · 77%

Head

48% acc · 81%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

48% acc · 75%

33% acc · 8%

Clinch

80% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Adrian Yanez rounds

Round 1Adrian Yanez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 32

Sig Strikes

16 / 30

40%

Sig Str %

53%

13 / 32

Total Strikes

16 / 30

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Adrian Yanez	16 / 30	16 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Cody Garbrandt	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Adrian Yanez

Odds

-434

Market-implied probability

Cody Garbrandt 22%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Cody Garbrandt (model pick · research)$434

Adrian Yanez$123

22% market-implied · model 54% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at +334 · never rewritten

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11