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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · U-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1599

Cody DurdenvsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCody Durden: WrestlervsJoshua Van: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody Durden

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1458

Elo

1599

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DurdenMetricJoshua Van

3.24

Strikes / min

8.43

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

50%

Strike defense

58%

3.99

TDs / 15 min

0.82

56%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 3.31 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DurdenJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Durden(10 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -140.7|Blue +140.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DurdenTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

30% acc · 86%

Head

131

50% acc · 79%

75% acc · 9%

Body

81% acc · 13%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

144

52% acc · 87%

Clinch

86% acc · 12%

Ground

67% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Durden rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:14

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

72Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

63Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 217

Sig Strikes

165 / 304

34.3%

Sig Str %

55%

74 / 223

Total Strikes

184 / 323

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

22%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joshua Van	30 / 49	46 / 65	0 / 0
1	Cody Durden	14 / 33	18 / 38	2 / 3
2	Joshua Van	72 / 136	73 / 137	0 / 0
2	Cody Durden	27 / 99	27 / 100	0 / 3
3	Joshua Van	63 / 119	65 / 121	0 / 0
3	Cody Durden	29 / 85	29 / 85	0 / 2

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11