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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jose Ochoa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1458

Elo1518

Cody DurdenvsJose OchoaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Jose Ochoa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:11

Style matchupCody Durden: WrestlervsJose Ochoa: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jose Ochoa wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Jose Ochoa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Ochoa at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cody Durden

Red Corner

Jose Ochoa

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1458

Elo

1518

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Durden

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Dec 24

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Jose Ochoa

oldest →

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Nov 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Jul 25

DECvs Clayton Carpenter · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DurdenMetricJose Ochoa

3.24

Strikes / min

5.16

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

50%

Strike defense

58%

3.99

TDs / 15 min

0.30

56%

Takedown defense

65%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DurdenJose Ochoa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Durden(10 fights)Jose Ochoa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.7|Blue +59.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DurdenTargetJose Ochoa

By target zone

18% acc · 67%

Head

43% acc · 60%

25% acc · 11%

Body

25% acc · 23%

67% acc · 22%

Leg

56% acc · 17%

By position

22% acc · 89%

Distance

34% acc · 80%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 10%

33% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Durden rounds

even

Jose Ochoa rounds

Round 1Jose Ochoa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:42

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Jose Ochoa edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 41

Sig Strikes

30 / 79

11.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

12 / 47

Total Strikes

52 / 107

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jose Ochoa	25 / 73	47 / 101	0 / 0
1	Cody Durden	9 / 39	12 / 45	2 / 4
2	Jose Ochoa	5 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 0
2	Cody Durden	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Jose Ochoa

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4