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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Cody Durden won · U-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1507

Cody DurdenvsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Durden won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCody Durden: WrestlervsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cody Durden wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Cody Durden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Durden at +122 American odds

+$122 profit

$222 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody Durden

Red Corner

Charles Johnson

Blue Corner

+122

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-144

(59%)

1458

Elo

1507

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DurdenMetricCharles Johnson

3.24

Strikes / min

4.77

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

50%

Strike defense

55%

3.99

TDs / 15 min

0.51

56%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DurdenCharles Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Durden(10 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DurdenTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

49% acc · 70%

Head

39% acc · 58%

90% acc · 16%

Body

90% acc · 37%

89% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

52% acc · 82%

Distance

51% acc · 88%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

56% acc · 10%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Durden rounds

even

Charles Johnson rounds

Round 1Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns4

Control3:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns4

Control3:18

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns3

Control2:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 99

Sig Strikes

52 / 101

59%

Sig Str %

51%

80 / 128

Total Strikes

60 / 109

11 / 18

TDs

0 / 0

60.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:33

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Johnson	7 / 14	8 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Cody Durden	13 / 19	28 / 36	4 / 6	0
2	Charles Johnson	22 / 40	27 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Cody Durden	21 / 33	26 / 40	4 / 6	0
3	Charles Johnson	23 / 47	25 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Cody Durden	22 / 47	26 / 52	3 / 6	0

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15