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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Cody Durden won · U-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1495

Cody DurdenvsCarlos MotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Durden won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cody Durden wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Cody Durden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Durden at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody Durden

Red Corner

Carlos Mota

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1458

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Carlos MotaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DurdenMetricCarlos Mota

3.24

Strikes / min

0.80

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

1.13

50%

Strike defense

54%

3.99

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DurdenCarlos Mota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Durden(10 fights)Carlos Mota(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.5|Blue +36.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DurdenTargetCarlos Mota

By target zone

39% acc · 76%

Head

32% acc · 50%

100% acc · 18%

Body

56% acc · 42%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

35% acc · 41%

Distance

32% acc · 58%

Clinch

59% acc · 59%

Ground

71% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Durden rounds

even

Carlos Mota rounds

Round 1Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:27

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:40

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 37

Sig Strikes

12 / 29

44.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

51 / 95

Total Strikes

36 / 62

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

63.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:32

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Mota	2 / 4	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Cody Durden	9 / 16	13 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Carlos Mota	3 / 6	18 / 25	0 / 0	1
2	Cody Durden	3 / 11	23 / 39	1 / 4	0
3	Carlos Mota	7 / 19	12 / 25	0 / 0	0
3	Cody Durden	5 / 10	15 / 27	2 / 3	0

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Carlos Mota

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1