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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1485

Cody DonovanvsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:57

Style matchupCody Donovan: Submission grapplervsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Cody Donovan wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Donovan at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Donovan

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1353

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody DonovanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nick Penner · Dec 12

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 13

KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 13

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DonovanMetricNikita Krylov

5.61

Strikes / min

4.36

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

45%

Strike defense

47%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

2.05

Takedown defense

53%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DonovanNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Donovan(4 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.0|Blue +132.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DonovanTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

50% acc · 81%

Head

56% acc · 69%

80% acc · 19%

Body

64% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 29%

Distance

46% acc · 26%

61% acc · 67%

Clinch

68% acc · 50%

33% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Donovan rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:33

Knockdowns1

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:52Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 39

Sig Strikes

42 / 70

53%

Sig Str %

60%

31 / 50

Total Strikes

80 / 114

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikita Krylov	42 / 70	80 / 114	0 / 0	0
1	Cody Donovan	21 / 39	31 / 50	1 / 2	2

Cody Donovan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23