← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gian Villante won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1411

Cody DonovanvsGian VillanteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gian Villante won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:22

Style matchupCody Donovan: Submission grapplervsGian Villante: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Gian Villante wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Gian Villante wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gian Villante at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Cody Donovan has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Gian Villante has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gian Villante has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Donovan

Red Corner

Gian Villante

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1353

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody DonovanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nick Penner · Dec 12

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 13

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 14

latest

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody DonovanMetricGian Villante

5.61

Strikes / min

4.38

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

45%

Strike defense

55%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

0.45

Takedown defense

83%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody DonovanGian Villante

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Donovan(4 fights)Gian Villante(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.4|Blue +57.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody DonovanTargetGian Villante

By target zone

49% acc · 71%

Head

48% acc · 77%

93% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 12%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

83% acc · 12%

By position

55% acc · 90%

Distance

49% acc · 88%

83% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Donovan rounds

even

Gian Villante rounds

Round 1Cody Donovan edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:02

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 90

Sig Strikes

43 / 82

59.5%

Sig Str %

53.5%

55 / 94

Total Strikes

57 / 97

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gian Villante	27 / 54	39 / 67	1 / 1
1	Cody Donovan	38 / 70	41 / 73	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	16 / 28	18 / 30	0 / 0
2	Cody Donovan	13 / 20	14 / 21	0 / 1

Cody Donovan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18