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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1508
Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Cody BrundagevsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:16

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cody Brundage has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cody Brundage
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1490
Elo
1508
32
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Brundage
oldest →
D
vs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Jun 25
L
vs Eric McConico · Aug 25
L
KOvs Cam Rowston · Jan 26
L
vs Donte Johnson · Mar 26
W
KOvs Andre Petroski · May 26
latest
Michal Oleksiejczuk
oldest →
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25
W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody BrundageMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
2.26
Strikes / min
5.85
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.88
TDs / 15 min
1.02
68%
Takedown defense
52%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1531Strikes1.6 vs 5.1Takedowns2.3 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 0.4
Cody BrundageMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501473149515181540← oldermost recent →
Cody Brundage(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -18.2|Blue +18.2
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody BrundageTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
13
48% acc · 87%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 13%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
15
54% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cody Brundage rounds
0
even
1
Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds
Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns3
Control1:53
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 2
Sig Strikes
15 / 29
0%
Sig Str %
51%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
25 / 40
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
1:53
Ctrl Time
1:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michal Oleksiejczuk15 / 2925 / 400 / 00
1Cody Brundage0 / 21 / 33 / 30

Cody Brundage

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18