Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Cody Brundage won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1481

Cody BrundagevsJulian MarquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Brundage won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:45

Model Prediction: Cody Brundage wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Cody Brundage wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Brundage at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Julian Marquez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Cody Brundage is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Brundage
Red Corner
VS
Julian Marquez
Blue Corner
-116
(54%)
Vegas Odds
-102
(50%)
1490
Elo
1481
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Brundage
oldest →
D
vs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Jun 25
L
vs Eric McConico · Aug 25
L
KOvs Cam Rowston · Jan 26
L
vs Donte Johnson · Mar 26
W
KOvs Andre Petroski · May 26
latest
Julian MarquezL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21
W
SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21
L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22
L
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23
L
KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody BrundageMetricJulian Marquez
2.26
Strikes / min
5.06
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
5.35
50%
Strike defense
50%
1.88
TDs / 15 min
0.00
68%
Takedown defense
54%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1474Strikes2.3 vs 5.1Takedowns1.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 2.60Form-0.2 vs -0.9
Cody BrundageJulian Marquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Cody Brundage(10 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.3|Blue -8.3
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody BrundageTargetJulian Marquez

By target zone

39
55% acc · 89%
Head
31
48% acc · 84%
1
50% acc · 2%
Body
5
63% acc · 14%
4
67% acc · 9%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

34
52% acc · 77%
Distance
24
47% acc · 65%
5
63% acc · 11%
Clinch
13
59% acc · 35%
5
83% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cody Brundage rounds
0
even
0
Julian Marquez rounds
Round 1Cody Brundage edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:48
Knockdowns1
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
44 / 79
Sig Strikes
37 / 73
55%
Sig Str %
50%
68 / 106
Total Strikes
53 / 96
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:48
Ctrl Time
0:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Julian Marquez37 / 7353 / 960 / 01
1Cody Brundage44 / 7968 / 1060 / 10

Cody Brundage

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8