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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mickey Gall won · SUB R1
Elo1366
CM Punk
Elo1485
Mickey Gall

CM PunkvsMickey GallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Mickey Gall won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:14

Model Prediction: Mickey Gall wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Mickey Gall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mickey Gall at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mickey Gall enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Mickey Gall threatens submissions; CM Punk has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Mickey Gall has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mickey Gall (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

CM Punk
Red Corner
VS
Mickey Gall
Blue Corner
+345
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-430
(81%)
1366
Elo
1485
47
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CM Punk
oldest →
L
vs Mike Jackson · Jun 18
latest
Mickey GallL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jordan Williams · Jul 21
L
vs Alex Morono · Dec 21
L
KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 22
L
vs Bassil Hafez · Jun 24
L
KOvs Ramiz Brahimaj · Nov 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CM PunkMetricMickey Gall
1.10
Strikes / min
3.50
4.87
Strikes absorbed / min
4.72
40%
Strike defense
49%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
1.15
0%
Takedown defense
37%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.77Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1519Strikes— vs 2.0Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 1.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
CM PunkMickey Gall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
CM Punk(2 fights)Mickey Gall(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -119.6|Blue +119.6
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CM PunkTargetMickey Gall

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
20
63% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
20
63% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
CM Punk rounds
0
even
1
Mickey Gall rounds
Round 1Mickey Gall edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
20 / 32
0%
Sig Str %
62%
6 / 8
Total Strikes
26 / 39
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mickey Gall20 / 3226 / 391 / 12
1CM Punk0 / 16 / 80 / 00

CM Punk

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2

Mickey Gall

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13