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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Clayton Carpenter won · SUB R2

Elo1458

Elo1507

Clayton CarpentervsLucas RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clayton Carpenter won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:12

Style matchupClayton Carpenter: Submission grapplervsLucas Rocha: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(92.0%)

Actual result: Clayton Carpenter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clayton Carpenter at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lucas Rocha has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Clayton Carpenter

Red Corner

Lucas Rocha

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1458

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clayton CarpenterL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25

DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26

latest

Lucas Rocha

oldest →

vs Stewart Nicoll · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clayton CarpenterMetricLucas Rocha

3.88

Strikes / min

5.09

4.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

49%

Strike defense

56%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.64

50%

Takedown defense

76%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clayton CarpenterLucas Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)Lucas Rocha(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clayton CarpenterTargetLucas Rocha

By target zone

49% acc · 65%

Head

31% acc · 59%

88% acc · 21%

Body

75% acc · 35%

71% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

47% acc · 59%

Distance

41% acc · 94%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

81% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clayton Carpenter rounds

even

Lucas Rocha rounds

Round 1Clayton Carpenter edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:38

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clayton Carpenter edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 60

Sig Strikes

17 / 41

56%

Sig Str %

42%

36 / 62

Total Strikes

21 / 45

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucas Rocha	9 / 24	12 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Clayton Carpenter	23 / 40	25 / 42	1 / 1	0
2	Lucas Rocha	8 / 17	9 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Clayton Carpenter	11 / 20	11 / 20	1 / 2	1

Clayton Carpenter

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Lucas Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2