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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Clayton Carpenter won · SUB R1

Elo1458

Elo1450

Clayton CarpentervsJuancamilo RonderosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clayton Carpenter won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:13

Style matchupClayton Carpenter: Submission grapplervsJuancamilo Ronderos: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(85.2%)

Actual result: Clayton Carpenter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clayton Carpenter at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Juancamilo Ronderos has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Juancamilo Ronderos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Clayton Carpenter has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Juancamilo Ronderos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clayton Carpenter

Red Corner

Juancamilo Ronderos

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1458

Elo

1450

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clayton CarpenterL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25

DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26

latest

Juancamilo Ronderos

oldest →

SUBvs David Dvorak · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clayton CarpenterMetricJuancamilo Ronderos

3.88

Strikes / min

2.18

4.47

Strikes absorbed / min

2.18

49%

Strike defense

63%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.72

50%

Takedown defense

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clayton CarpenterJuancamilo Ronderos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)Juancamilo Ronderos(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.7|Blue -7.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clayton CarpenterTargetJuancamilo Ronderos

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

60% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clayton Carpenter rounds

even

Juancamilo Ronderos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:19

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 5

Sig Strikes

1 / 7

60%

Sig Str %

14%

3 / 5

Total Strikes

46 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:19

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Juancamilo Ronderos	1 / 7	46 / 56	1 / 1	0
1	Clayton Carpenter	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	3

Clayton Carpenter

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Juancamilo Ronderos

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2