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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jose Ochoa won · Decision R3
Elo1458
Clayton Carpenter
Elo1518

Clayton CarpentervsJose OchoaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Jose Ochoa won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClayton Carpenter: Submission grapplervsJose Ochoa: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Jose Ochoa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Ochoa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Clayton Carpenter
Red Corner
VS
Jose Ochoa
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1458
Elo
1518
30
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clayton CarpenterL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23
W
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25
L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25
latest
Jose Ochoa
oldest →
L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Nov 24
W
KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 25
L
vs Asu Almabayev · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clayton CarpenterMetricJose Ochoa
3.88
Strikes / min
5.16
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
49%
Strike defense
58%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
0.30
50%
Takedown defense
65%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap+2.17
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401463148515081530← oldermost recent →
Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)Jose Ochoa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -60.1|Blue +60.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Clayton Carpenter

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights5

Jose Ochoa

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4