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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Seth Baczynski won · SUB R2

Elo1351

Elo1354

Clay HarvisonvsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Seth Baczynski won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:12

Model Prediction: Clay Harvison wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Harvison at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Clay Harvison has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Clay Harvison has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Harvison

Red Corner

Seth Baczynski

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1351

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay Harvison

oldest →

vs Justin Edwards · Jun 11

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Nov 11

latest

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Neil Magny · Nov 13

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay HarvisonMetricSeth Baczynski

3.29

Strikes / min

3.08

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

58%

Strike defense

51%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

0.89

68%

Takedown defense

48%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay HarvisonSeth Baczynski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Harvison(3 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay HarvisonTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

14% acc · 17%

Head

32% acc · 61%

83% acc · 42%

Body

45% acc · 24%

71% acc · 42%

Leg

86% acc · 15%

By position

38% acc · 67%

Distance

21% acc · 34%

67% acc · 33%

Clinch

73% acc · 46%

Ground

57% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Harvison rounds

even

Seth Baczynski rounds

Round 1Seth Baczynski edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 2Seth Baczynski edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 27

Sig Strikes

41 / 107

47%

Sig Str %

42.5%

18 / 33

Total Strikes

45 / 111

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Seth Baczynski	30 / 85	31 / 86	0 / 2	0
1	Clay Harvison	11 / 25	17 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Seth Baczynski	11 / 22	14 / 25	0 / 0	1
2	Clay Harvison	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0

Clay Harvison

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11