Welterweight

3 Rounds

Clay Harvison won · S-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1355

Clay HarvisonvsJustin EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Harvison won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Harvison: Well-roundedvsJustin Edwards: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Clay Harvison wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Clay Harvison wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Harvison at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Clay Harvison has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Clay Harvison has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Clay Harvison has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Harvison

Red Corner

Justin Edwards

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1351

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay HarvisonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Seth Baczynski · Sep 11

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Nov 11

latest

Justin EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs John Maguire · Nov 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay HarvisonMetricJustin Edwards

3.29

Strikes / min

2.68

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

58%

Strike defense

51%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

2.14

68%

Takedown defense

27%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Harvison(3 fights)Justin Edwards(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay HarvisonTargetJustin Edwards

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

36% acc · 62%

100% acc · 39%

Body

91% acc · 24%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

86% acc · 14%

By position

34% acc · 42%

Distance

40% acc · 64%

88% acc · 39%

Clinch

74% acc · 33%

85% acc · 19%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Harvison rounds

even

Justin Edwards rounds

Round 1Justin Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:48

14Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Clay Harvison edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:58

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 3Clay Harvison edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:02

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 108

Sig Strikes

42 / 90

53.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

113 / 170

Total Strikes

84 / 144

1 / 1

TDs

7 / 20

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

6:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Edwards	14 / 26	27 / 40	4 / 7	0
1	Clay Harvison	12 / 23	19 / 30	0 / 0	2
2	Justin Edwards	19 / 37	25 / 46	0 / 6	0
2	Clay Harvison	25 / 52	55 / 83	0 / 0	0
3	Justin Edwards	9 / 27	32 / 58	3 / 7	0
3	Clay Harvison	20 / 33	39 / 57	1 / 1	0

Clay Harvison

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7