← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1491

Clay GuidavsThiago TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Tavares won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:39

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsThiago Tavares: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Thiago Tavares

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Thiago TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13

SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13

SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricThiago Tavares

2.63

Strikes / min

2.00

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

61%

Strike defense

62%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.83

66%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaThiago Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Thiago Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetThiago Tavares

By target zone

20% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Thiago Tavares rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:18

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 11

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

27%

Sig Str %

28%

3 / 11

Total Strikes

2 / 7

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Tavares	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	1
1	Clay Guida	3 / 11	3 / 11	1 / 1	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Thiago Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10