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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1362

Clay GuidavsTakanori GomiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:27

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsTakanori Gomi: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(85.5%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at -137 American odds

+$73 profit

$173 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Takanori Gomi enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Takanori Gomi (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Takanori Gomi

Blue Corner

-137

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+127

(44%)

1490

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Takanori GomiL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Myles Jury · Sep 14

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Jul 15

KOvs Jim Miller · Jul 16

SUBvs Jon Tuck · Jun 17

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricTakanori Gomi

2.63

Strikes / min

3.81

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

61%

Strike defense

60%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.23

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaTakanori Gomi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Takanori Gomi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.6|Blue -128.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetTakanori Gomi

By target zone

18% acc · 83%

Head

14% acc · 79%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

19% acc · 92%

Distance

16% acc · 93%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Takanori Gomi rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control0:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 61

Sig Strikes

14 / 81

19.5%

Sig Str %

17%

16 / 69

Total Strikes

14 / 81

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

32.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takanori Gomi	5 / 42	5 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	6 / 28	9 / 33	2 / 5	0
2	Takanori Gomi	9 / 39	9 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Guida	6 / 33	7 / 36	1 / 4	2

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Takanori Gomi

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13