← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Clay GuidavsShannon GugertyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:40

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsShannon Gugerty: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Clay Guida has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Shannon Gugerty

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Shannon GugertyNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricShannon Gugerty

2.63

Strikes / min

1.25

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

1.88

61%

Strike defense

58%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.13

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

3.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaShannon Gugerty

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Shannon Gugerty(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetShannon Gugerty

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

14% acc · 100%

100% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

7% acc · 7%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 86%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Shannon Gugerty rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:06

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 33

Sig Strikes

1 / 7

43%

Sig Str %

12.5%

72 / 102

Total Strikes

6 / 12

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:27

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shannon Gugerty	1 / 4	4 / 7	0 / 0	2
1	Clay Guida	6 / 18	28 / 45	1 / 1	0
2	Shannon Gugerty	0 / 3	2 / 5	0 / 1	1
2	Clay Guida	8 / 15	44 / 57	1 / 1	1

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Shannon Gugerty

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1