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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1443

Clay GuidavsScott HoltzmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsScott Holtzman: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Scott Holtzman

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1443

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Scott HoltzmanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · Feb 19

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricScott Holtzman

2.63

Strikes / min

4.32

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

61%

Strike defense

55%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.88

66%

Takedown defense

67%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaScott Holtzman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Scott Holtzman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.3|Blue -47.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -378.0|Blue +378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetScott Holtzman

By target zone

22% acc · 45%

Head

38% acc · 85%

64% acc · 35%

Body

38% acc · 8%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

71% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 88%

Distance

38% acc · 92%

71% acc · 8%

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Scott Holtzman rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:55

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control2:40

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 183

Sig Strikes

65 / 166

37%

Sig Str %

40%

95 / 215

Total Strikes

77 / 178

4 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

19.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:35

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Scott Holtzman	18 / 63	19 / 64	0 / 0
1	Clay Guida	23 / 79	23 / 79	0 / 1
2	Scott Holtzman	22 / 42	32 / 52	0 / 0
2	Clay Guida	17 / 40	29 / 53	2 / 8
3	Scott Holtzman	25 / 61	26 / 62	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	26 / 64	43 / 83	2 / 6

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13