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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Clay GuidavsRobert PeraltaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsRobert Peralta: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robert Peralta wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Peralta at +205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Robert Peralta

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Robert Peralta

oldest →

KOvs Jason Young · Sep 12

vs Akira Corassani · Apr 13

KOvs Estevan Payan · Dec 13

vs Rony Jason · May 14

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricRobert Peralta

2.63

Strikes / min

3.76

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

61%

Strike defense

53%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.59

66%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaRobert Peralta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Robert Peralta(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.0|Blue -136.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetRobert Peralta

By target zone

10% acc · 15%

Head

18% acc · 54%

100% acc · 30%

Body

67% acc · 8%

94% acc · 56%

Leg

90% acc · 38%

By position

14% acc · 22%

Distance

28% acc · 83%

92% acc · 41%

Clinch

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 37%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Robert Peralta rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control3:59

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:29

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:42

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 64

Sig Strikes

24 / 84

41.7%

Sig Str %

29%

44 / 85

Total Strikes

41 / 103

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

62%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robert Peralta	9 / 24	10 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	7 / 20	18 / 35	3 / 3	0
2	Robert Peralta	8 / 35	19 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Guida	11 / 24	11 / 24	1 / 5	0
3	Robert Peralta	7 / 25	12 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Guida	9 / 20	15 / 26	2 / 3	1

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Robert Peralta

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7