← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Clay GuidavsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:51

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -126 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-126

(56%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricRafael Dos Anjos

2.63

Strikes / min

3.48

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

61%

Strike defense

60%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.95

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

13% acc · 53%

Head

22% acc · 65%

75% acc · 16%

Body

60% acc · 18%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

38% acc · 18%

By position

14% acc · 58%

Distance

22% acc · 76%

80% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

67% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:28

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:03

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:02

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 90

Sig Strikes

17 / 64

19%

Sig Str %

26%

47 / 123

Total Strikes

29 / 76

2 / 6

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	10 / 36	14 / 40	1 / 3
1	Clay Guida	12 / 36	13 / 38	0 / 3
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	5 / 21	13 / 29	0 / 1
2	Clay Guida	5 / 35	22 / 56	1 / 1
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	2 / 19	12 / 29	1 / 2

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32