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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1533

Clay GuidavsRafa GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(79.7%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Rafa Garcia

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1490

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Maheshate · Dec 22

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricRafa Garcia

2.63

Strikes / min

4.28

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

61%

Strike defense

61%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.22

66%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaRafa Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.3|Blue +42.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetRafa Garcia

By target zone

22% acc · 78%

Head

130

48% acc · 92%

33% acc · 6%

Body

42% acc · 4%

77% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

138

49% acc · 98%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Rafa Garcia rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

65Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 252

Sig Strikes

141 / 287

24.7%

Sig Str %

48%

63 / 252

Total Strikes

143 / 289

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafa Garcia	34 / 89	34 / 89	0 / 0
1	Clay Guida	23 / 92	23 / 92	0 / 0
2	Rafa Garcia	65 / 110	65 / 110	0 / 0
2	Clay Guida	21 / 88	21 / 88	0 / 1
3	Rafa Garcia	42 / 88	44 / 90	0 / 1
3	Clay Guida	19 / 72	19 / 72	0 / 2

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11