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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Madsen won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1486

Clay GuidavsMark MadsenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Saturday, August 21, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mark Madsen won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsMark Madsen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mark Madsen wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Mark Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Madsen at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Mark Madsen

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Mark MadsenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20

vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22

KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricMark Madsen

2.63

Strikes / min

3.56

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

61%

Strike defense

52%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.86

66%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaMark Madsen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.6|Blue -4.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red -336.0|Blue +336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetMark Madsen

By target zone

19% acc · 42%

Head

44% acc · 71%

38% acc · 7%

Body

81% acc · 17%

97% acc · 51%

Leg

92% acc · 11%

By position

32% acc · 89%

Distance

47% acc · 82%

89% acc · 11%

Clinch

90% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Mark Madsen rounds

Round 1Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Mark Madsen edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 212

Sig Strikes

98 / 192

33.3%

Sig Str %

52%

72 / 212

Total Strikes

101 / 198

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Madsen	32 / 52	35 / 56	0 / 0
1	Clay Guida	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 0
2	Mark Madsen	31 / 58	31 / 60	0 / 1
2	Clay Guida	26 / 72	26 / 72	0 / 0
3	Mark Madsen	35 / 82	35 / 82	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	31 / 90	31 / 90	0 / 0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6