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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1433

Clay GuidavsLeonardo SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:21

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsLeonardo Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Leonardo Santos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Leonardo Santos

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1490

Elo

1433

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Leonardo SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricLeonardo Santos

2.63

Strikes / min

2.82

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

61%

Strike defense

54%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.88

66%

Takedown defense

86%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaLeonardo Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Leonardo Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.4|Blue -57.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetLeonardo Santos

By target zone

21% acc · 44%

Head

56% acc · 54%

100% acc · 33%

Body

89% acc · 41%

80% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

18% acc · 39%

Distance

62% acc · 32%

0% acc

Clinch

70% acc · 39%

100% acc · 61%

Ground

75% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Leonardo Santos rounds

Round 1Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:11

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:58

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 50

Sig Strikes

41 / 60

38%

Sig Str %

83.5%

50 / 87

Total Strikes

65 / 92

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

29%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leonardo Santos	39 / 58	63 / 90	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	8 / 30	34 / 57	1 / 4	0
2	Leonardo Santos	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Guida	10 / 20	16 / 30	1 / 3	1

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10