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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1492

Clay GuidavsErik KochUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsErik Koch: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +290 American odds

+$290 profit

$390 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Clay Guida has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Erik Koch has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Erik Koch

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1490

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Erik Koch

oldest →

KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14

SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16

vs Bobby Green · Jan 18

vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricErik Koch

2.63

Strikes / min

2.33

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

61%

Strike defense

47%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

1.02

66%

Takedown defense

81%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaErik Koch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetErik Koch

By target zone

42% acc · 87%

Head

28% acc · 77%

67% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 15%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

13% acc · 11%

Distance

28% acc · 77%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

61% acc · 87%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Erik Koch rounds

Round 1Erik Koch edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:57

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 87

Sig Strikes

13 / 39

39.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

133 / 207

Total Strikes

17 / 44

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:52

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Erik Koch	8 / 24	10 / 26	0 / 0
1	Clay Guida	3 / 19	3 / 19	0 / 2
2	Erik Koch	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0
2	Clay Guida	22 / 43	80 / 117	1 / 1
3	Erik Koch	2 / 7	4 / 10	0 / 0
3	Clay Guida	13 / 25	50 / 71	1 / 5

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10