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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dennis Bermudez won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1491

Clay GuidavsDennis BermudezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Dennis Bermudez won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:57

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsDennis Bermudez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dennis Bermudez wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Dennis Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Bermudez at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dennis Bermudez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Clay Guida has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Dennis Bermudez

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Dennis Bermudez

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Feb 17

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 17

vs Andre Fili · Jan 18

vs Rick Glenn · Jul 18

vs Te Edwards · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricDennis Bermudez

2.63

Strikes / min

4.42

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

61%

Strike defense

59%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.89

66%

Takedown defense

82%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaDennis Bermudez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Dennis Bermudez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetDennis Bermudez

By target zone

33% acc · 86%

Head

36% acc · 77%

100% acc · 4%

Body

83% acc · 11%

60% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

34% acc · 93%

Distance

37% acc · 79%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

77% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Dennis Bermudez rounds

Round 1Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:08

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Dennis Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 79

Sig Strikes

47 / 114

35%

Sig Str %

40%

39 / 95

Total Strikes

66 / 135

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

35%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

2:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dennis Bermudez	30 / 64	46 / 81	1 / 5	0
1	Clay Guida	12 / 36	23 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Dennis Bermudez	17 / 50	20 / 54	1 / 2	1
2	Clay Guida	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 2	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Dennis Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17