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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Puelles won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1488

Clay GuidavsClaudio PuellesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Saturday, April 23, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Claudio Puelles won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:01

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsClaudio Puelles: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Claudio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Clay Guida has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Puelles (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Claudio Puelles

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1490

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Claudio PuellesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricClaudio Puelles

2.63

Strikes / min

1.54

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

61%

Strike defense

48%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.29

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaClaudio Puelles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Claudio Puelles(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetClaudio Puelles

By target zone

50% acc · 33%

Head

50% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 67%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Claudio Puelles rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:10

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 4

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

75%

Sig Str %

33%

4 / 6

Total Strikes

11 / 13

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Claudio Puelles	1 / 3	11 / 13	0 / 0	2
1	Clay Guida	3 / 4	4 / 6	0 / 1	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8