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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chase Hooper won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Clay Guida
Elo1525
Chase Hooper editorial illustration

Clay GuidavsChase HooperUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chase Hooper won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:41

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsChase Hooper: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Chase Hooper wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chase Hooper threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
  • Clay Guida has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Chase Hooper (53.5%).
  • Chase Hooper has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida
Red Corner
VS
Chase Hooper
Blue Corner
+700
(13%)
Vegas Odds
-1100
(92%)
1490
Elo
1525
44
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22
W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22
L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23
L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23
latest
Chase Hooper
oldest →
W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24
W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 25
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25
L
KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26
W
SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricChase Hooper
2.63
Strikes / min
4.50
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
61%
Strike defense
39%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
2.43
66%
Takedown defense
55%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1491 vs 1549Strikes2.6 vs 5.1Takedowns3.1 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.60 vs 2.30Form-0.5 vs 0.8
Clay GuidaChase Hooper

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Clay Guida(10 fights)Chase Hooper(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -34.3|Blue +34.3
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetChase Hooper

By target zone

3
33% acc · 60%
Head
5
50% acc · 71%
2
50% acc · 40%
Body
2
40% acc · 29%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
20% acc · 40%
Distance
5
42% acc · 71%
3
100% acc · 60%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 14%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Clay Guida rounds
0
even
1
Chase Hooper rounds
Round 1Chase Hooper edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 13
Sig Strikes
7 / 15
38%
Sig Str %
46%
6 / 15
Total Strikes
14 / 28
0 / 1
TDs
3 / 6
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chase Hooper7 / 1514 / 283 / 61
1Clay Guida5 / 136 / 150 / 10

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14