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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1521

Clay GuidavsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:18

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Clay Guida has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricCharles Oliveira

2.63

Strikes / min

3.23

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

61%

Strike defense

48%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.29

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.8|Blue +30.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

20% acc · 44%

Head

33% acc · 43%

100% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

78% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 89%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 25

Sig Strikes

14 / 29

36%

Sig Str %

48%

9 / 25

Total Strikes

14 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0	1
1	Clay Guida	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 1	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36