← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benson Henderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Clay GuidavsBenson HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Benson Henderson

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Benson HendersonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricBenson Henderson

2.63

Strikes / min

2.93

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

61%

Strike defense

63%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

2.40

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaBenson Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +71.0|Blue -71.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetBenson Henderson

By target zone

15% acc · 36%

Head

29% acc · 40%

45% acc · 45%

Body

77% acc · 57%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

33% acc · 3%

By position

24% acc · 55%

Distance

19% acc · 18%

33% acc · 45%

Clinch

55% acc · 53%

Ground

86% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Benson Henderson rounds

Round 1Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:06

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control0:49

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:52

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 40

Sig Strikes

40 / 89

27.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

35 / 65

Total Strikes

102 / 158

2 / 9

TDs

2 / 7

16.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

7:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benson Henderson	19 / 41	41 / 68	0 / 1	0
1	Clay Guida	6 / 20	16 / 31	0 / 4	1
2	Benson Henderson	11 / 19	38 / 48	1 / 4	0
2	Clay Guida	3 / 8	11 / 16	2 / 4	1
3	Benson Henderson	10 / 29	23 / 42	1 / 2	0
3	Clay Guida	2 / 12	8 / 18	0 / 1	2

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14